Real Estate: Still Gloomy

Housing has been a source of concern for regulators, bankers and consumers for more than a year now, and signs of improvement are nowhere to be seen. According to the latest NAR report, existing home sales dropped 2.2% in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.89 million units, compared to 5.00 million in November, down 22% year-over-year. Total existing home sales for 2007 came in at 5,652,000, down 12.8% when compared to 2006 results but still the fifth highest level on record. The inventory of unsold homes currently on the market is more than twice the normal supply. The December level was the highest in history for that month. The median price for a single-family home dropped 1.8% in 2007, the first decline since the NAR started tracking prices in 1968. Looks like it can only get better from now on but who knows, so many problems need to be solved first.

By the way, the latest Fed rate cut has helped bring down mortgage interest rates: on average, the 30-year fixed home loan carried an interest of 5.48% this week, the lowest level in almost 4 years. It stood at 5.69% last week. 15-year fixed-rate mortgages dropped to 4.95%, from 5.21% last week, 5-year adjustable-rate home loans averaged 5.13%, compared to 5.40% a week ago, and one-year ARMs stood at 4.99% this week, compared to 5.26% last week. Lenders are expecting a refinancing boom.

Bush Administration Proposes Fiscal Stimulus

On Friday, Bernanke and the Bush administration proposed a “fiscal stimulus package” of $150 billion to help prop up the economy by encouraging consumer spending. No details were available, because the Congress has yet to approve it, but the administration is considering one-time tax rebates of approx. $800 for all consumers. An agreement will probably be reached in 30 to 45 days, just in time for tax-filing season. The plan is costly, and there’s some doubt that it won’t help the economy in the long term. Although it actually provides consumers with free cash, no one knows how they may react: in the current crisis, people are unlikely to start spending more. They may have to pay down credit card debt, buy insurance, or choose to invest the money. It may offer some relief, but it will not solve all the problems in the U.S. economy. Stock markets were closed on Monday, but Dow Jones and S&P 500 futures prices dropped more than 4% in a day. Markets all over Europe, South America, and Asia plunged on worries over bank losses, the U.S. Real Estate market and an imminent recession. Now this is getting scary.

The Perfect Storm

Housing starts dropped 14% in December to an annual rate of 1.006 million, the lowest pace since 1991. Construction fell 25% in 2007, its biggest drop since 1980. Permits dropped to 8.1% in December, and 25% for the entire 2007, the biggest decline since 1974. Construction of single-family homes dropped 2.9%, and multifamily homes dropped 40%. Homebuilders are scaling down construction while they wait for the surplus inventory on the market to sell. Well at least there’s some hope that that will happen. Mortgage rates continued to drop this week, 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaging 5.69%, the lowest in more than 2 years. 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 5.21%, down from 5.43% last week. 5-year hybrid ARMs carried an interest of 5.40%, compared to 5.63% last week. 1-year adjustable home loans fell from 5.37% to 5.26%. Unfortunately, banks are reluctant to lend money to borrowers. Weak retail sales in December, which dropped 0.4% from the previous month, would suggest that consumers are feeling strapped and unlikely to start house-hunting just yet. This looks like a perfect storm for the economy, and we’ve run out of ideas – and financial innovation.

Borrowers Desperate For Help

Thousands of homeowners facing foreclosure are turning to the Bush Administration’s foreclosure relief plan for help. HOPE NOW Alliance, a coalition of lenders and nonprofits which plays a central role in the plan, has noticed a significant increase in calls since the campaign was officially announced in the media. In each of the past two quarters, the number of calls has doubled and these days staffers have to deal with up to 3,000 calls a day, up from 100 calls per day in June 2006. The demand is so high that the foundation has tripled its staff, but hiring more counselors is hard, because HOPE NOW cannot offer competitive remuneration. Despite all the blasting the plan received in the media, desperate borrowers are calling by the thousands, and why shouldn’t they: if they get some mortgage relief – perfect, if not – they have nothing to lose by asking for help.

Fannie Mae said that it will reimburse mortgage servicing companies which refer delinquent borrowers to the HOPE counseling hotline, adding to demand for the service. The HOPE NOW toll-free number is 1-888-995-HOPE. It is available 24 hours a day and provides counseling in multiple languages. Now we’ll all sit and watch how all this unwinds, because it’s the best most of us can do – apart from, probably, writing angry comments about irresponsible borrowers/lenders and about using taxpayers’ money to bail out speculators. Oh, in fact Paulson repeatedly denied the possibility of the latter. However, he did say something about the economy and the housing market, but he wasn’t really optimistic: “there is no single or simple solution that will undo the excesses of the last few years”. Sad but true.

Little Optimism For 2008

This is the first post for this year. 2007 was tough, and a lot has changed since last January. Many believe the housing and capital markets may never be the same again. There’s hope for improvement later this year, and yet there’s some fear that things may get worse before they get better. November housing data, released at the end of December, gives little reason for optimism. New-home sales dropped 34.4% on year-over-year basis, the largest drop since 1991. The median price was down 0.4% on a yearly basis to $239,100. This number doesn’t account for builder incentives, which means that the actual prices have dropped even more. Sales of existing homes were up 0.4% compared to the month before for the first time since February – this sounds like a piece of good news but it’s hard to classify it as a turnaround point. Fewer homes were sold in November than the previous month: 46,000 homes sold compared to 55,000 in October. The supply of unsold homes currently on the market would take 10 months to sell at the current pace.

Mortgage interest rates ended the year nearly where they started, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaging a little above 6.1%. This, however, happened after interest rates topped 6.7% in the summer and the Fed lowered its benchmark interest rate by 1% with three consecutive rate cuts. Forecasts for 2008 range from extremely bearish to modestly bullish, but most are pretty cautious and somewhat vague. Happy New Year and let’s hope it’s a good year.

A Rate Cut Seems Likely

As the next Fed meeting approaches, the likelihood of another rate cut seems pretty high, although some doubts remain. The Government is manifestly not concerned about the dollar, as Treasury Secretary H. Paulson vetoed proposals to use the G7 final statement to warn of problems affecting European economies due to a weak dollar. This may mean that the currency will be allowed to fall further, should the Fed decide to cut rates to boost economic fundamentals.

However, another rate cut could accelerate inflation, and with oil hitting the psychological barrier of $90 a barrel, this could be a serious concern weighing on the Fed’s decision. Housing data for September coming later this week will be important for the Fed’s decision, too. There is no doubt that existing-home sales and new-home sales will fall, the question is whether the drop will exceed expectations, and how the Fed will interpret the data.

Low bids for Bear Stearns Hedge Funds

Investors in the Bear Stearns High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Enhanced Leveraged Fund, one of the two troubled hedge funds that have been making the news lately, are trying to sell their holdings at fire-sale prices. Unfortunately, the best bid so far is 5 cents on the dollar, much less than the 11 cents investors hoped to get.

The other, “less geared” fund, called High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Fund is attracting bidders at 30 cents, compared to the asking price of 70 cents on the dollar. Both these funds are backed by subprime mortgages and highly leveraged, meaning that their market price was probably much lower than their estimated value. The low bids are indicative of the risk associated with the subprime business and all securities backed by mortgages. Looks like troubles in subprime are spilling over to other sectors after all.

And now, something economists feared is already happening. Another hedge fund seems to be heading the same way as the two Bear Stearns funds. United Capital Asset Management is suspending redemptions from its Horizon funds, without liquidating them – for the time being. The funds’ manager, John Devaney, predicted the current turmoil in the sector, but couldn’t avoid running into trouble.

Homebuilder confidence is dropping

The homebuilder sentiment index, which tracks how builders evaluate the market situation, reached the lowest reading in 16 years in June. The index dropped to 28 from 30 in May, a sign that even more builders are pessimistic about market prospects.

According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), home prices will continue to decline until the end of the year, and housing will be “a drag on economic growth” in 2007. Troubles in mortgage lending are affecting home builders, who “continue to trim prices and offer a variety of non-price incentives” to prospective buyers. Since February, when the index reached 39, builder confidence has been falling steadily, to rates dramatically lower than a year ago. In June 2006, builder sentiment was at 42.

Pending Home Sales Index drops

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) announced that its Pending Home Sales Index dropped 3.2% in April from a month earlier. The index measures home purchases in which the contract has been signed but the transaction is not yet closed. It is considered a forward-looking indicator of market activity. In both March and April, the pending home index was approximately 10% lower than last year’s readings.

This drop is somewhat unexpected, because forecasts predicted a 0.4% increase. Lawrence Yun, a senior economist with the NAR, said sales of existing homes “might ease but should be fairly stable in the months ahead”. Hm… The index was in fact much lower than expected, is that a sign of improvement? Not in the real world, I think. According to some predictions, it may take several years for the housing market to stabilize, so expecting a “quick rebound” in the coming months is somewhat unrealistic. A rosy picture from the NAR again? Perhaps…

Subprime lenders worried by high default rates

Last week some serious problems in the subprime mortgage business became evident, as a number of lenders announced higher-than-expected losses. HSBC officials said the company’s US division reported rising defaults, and New Century declared its financial results for 2006 contained accounting errors and overestimated the company’s earnings. Shares of subprime lenders saw serious declines throughout the week, exacerbating the situation for mortgage companies.

The subprime sector has been especially productive recently, with lenders looking to close as many loans as possible and allowing for lower mortgage quality. As delinquency rates begin to rise, they’re likely to start tightening their standards and raising interest rates on high-risk loans. This means that many borrowers will be unable to access credit, which may lower housing sales.

An estimated 17% of home purchases are now made using subprime loans. If these consumers are left out of the housing market, the effect will certainly be felt throughout the industry, but it’s hard to quantify the impact. The overall delinquency rate was 4.7% in 2006, up from the historic low of 4.4% in 2005. Probably not all subprime borrowers will leave the market, and economists say the reduction shouldn’t be a big problem for the industry.

Experts are optimistic in their forecasts and believe that the economy will remain stable throughout 2007, and the housing market will start to improve later in the year. Freddie Mac forecasters say the economy won’t be dragged down by the slumping Real Estate industry.